OAJ Hot Take: The Future of Political Violence in America
Content warning: This article contains a discussion of political violence and terrorism.
The piece below is part of our weekly blog post series written by the Open-Air Journal team where we explore issues at Heller, current events, or whatever is presently on our minds.
On April 12, the film studio A24 will release the new movie “Civil War.” The aptly named movie follows a civil war in the United States between the Western Forces of California and Texas, the Florida Alliance, the New People's Army, and the United States government. Director Alex Garland, imitating the “first” Civil War, sets clear geographic boundaries between the warring factions. But Garland and others should not look to the Civil War for guidance on how future political violence will play out. Instead, they should look to 20th-century Ireland.
In the United States, the Civil War is generally taught as a rebellion by the Confederate U.S. South against the Union North. Most states teach that the war was over slavery. Although the borderlands of the Civil War are fuzzier than popular memory allows (some slave states fought for the Union), a middle schooler should be able to draw a line on a map separating the Confederacy from the Union. Violence followed those political boundaries.
Modern Ireland has geographic boundaries, but violence permeated well beyond the border of Ireland and Northern Ireland, or the changing fronts of armies. Starting in the 1970s, the Provisional IRA (based in the Republic of Ireland) started a guerilla war in Northern Ireland and England against military, economic, and political targets. The IRA’s objective was to end British rule in Northern Ireland and facilitate Irish reunification. This was known as “The Troubles.”
The IRA relied on a campaign of surprise attacks, snipers, and famously, bombings. The IRA orchestrated car bomb attacks, bombed pubs, and placed improvised explosive devices under utility holes in the streets. In 1979, the Provisional IRA killed Lord Louis Mountbatten, Queen Elizabeth’s second cousin, and nearly killed Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1984. In 1991, the Provisional IRA launched a mortar at 10 Downing Street in an attempt to kill British Prime Minister John Major. The Protestant Ulster Defence Regiment (UDF) also committed acts of violence in Ireland against Irish Catholics. Most of the IRA’s and UDF’s attacks were concentrated in Northern Ireland (especially Belfast), but violence was perpetrated throughout Ireland and Europe.
First, political violence in the United States already bears some resemblance to The Troubles. Violence in Ireland transcended political boundaries. The IRA bombed targets in Northern Ireland, while the UDF, although less active, attacked targets in the Republic of Ireland. Violence relied on surprise, knowledge of the area, and a low profile. The Club Q shooting and the January 6 coup attempt are American examples of attackers knowing their targets well. Due to looser gun laws in the United States, violence could be even more sporadic and unpredictable than the armed cells of the IRA.
Second, political figures are the targets of violence, as was the case in Ireland. Like the murder of Lord Mountbatten and the attempted bombing of Thatcher, American terrorists have sought to kill prominent figures. In 2020, 13 men, of which six were members of the “Wolverine Watchman” militia (a part of the far-right boogaloo movement), plotted to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The Federal Bureau of Intelligence foiled the plot. The paramilitary cell chose Whitmer because she instituted COVID-19 lockdown measures and because she was a Democrat. Later, in 2022, David DePape invaded the home of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to kill her in a “suicide mission.” The assailant chose Pelosi because she was a Democrat.
Third, the United States has a rich history of right-wing violence. After the Civil War, groups like the Ku Klux Klan engaged in paramilitary violence to reinforce white supremacy and disenfranchise formerly enslaved black people. During the civil rights movement, white supremacists assassinated activists like Martin Luther King, Jr., and Medgar Evers. During that same period, institutions like the University of Mississippi rioted, which resulted in the deaths of two, one of whom was executed. Should the present rhyme with the past, it is easy to imagine blue cities and governments in red states (a la the Wilmington massacre of 1898) being subject to violence, and right-wing governments preventing prosecution attempts. This was the case in the 1950s and 1960s South. It is even easier to imagine right-wing state governments becoming further emboldened when they target liberal cities and states.
Importantly, these acts of political violence do not belong to the ash heap of history. Within the last 30 years, anti-abortion radicals have killed nearly a dozen abortion providers. The 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, resulted in 35 injuries and one death when a white supremacist drove his car into a crowd of counter-protesters. Days later, then-President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump claimed there were “very fine people on both sides" of the protest. Notably, on January 6, 2021, rioters alongside antigovernment and fascist organizations like the Oath Keepers attempted a self-coup by attacking the United States Capitol Building to stop the Electoral College vote counting and reinstall Trump as president.
Whether or not Trump wins a second term in November 2024, political violence is unlikely to go away. But if Trump wins, Ronald Brownstein in The Atlantic predicts escalating violence targeted at “Blue America.” Spurred by Trump, it is easy to imagine “grab bag” right-wing extremists acting more boldly. As William Faulkner wrote, “The past isn't dead. It's not even past.”